DTT Buzz

 Kevin Frey says...
It's definitely an interesting question. I would like to think we have seen the bottom, but after just getting back from Florida and seeing every other house for sale down there I think we are in for another 6 months to year of madness. If oil starts coming back towards 90 a barrel that time frame could speed up.

Nick, you guys need to get Disqus installed at DTT. Can't believe Andy hasn't been pushing that... 9:17 AM 

 Anonymous says...
I think housing has bottomed in certain markets, but not overall. The market has been over-saturated in many areas and a correction is taking place in those areas. But there is still going to be growth in the mid-major cities. Additionally, with boomers down sizin, I believe the growth of the smaller, one-level homes/condos will continue. 9:24 AM 

 Gutzsarah says...
Nick, I talked to a realtor yesterday. He said people are out looking for bargain basement deals. Even builders are having to throw in all kinds of extras and cut prices. Would be very careful until after the elections to see which way the wind blows for the economy. just my opinion 9:25 AM 

 Nick Fenton says...
Kevin, Anon, and Gutzsarah - very good points. Trust me, I know that I'm the minority with regard to stating we are at a point of stability in housing. There has been significant downside pressure in this sector, and it's always risky to try to "catch a flling knife." That said, I'm beginning to feel confident that housing will start to level off here in most markets.

Kevin - I will look into installing Disqus. You're right, we need it! 9:33 AM 

 Anonymous says...
I do think we are definitely near the bottom of the housing market. But I feel there is still a good possibility it could very well become slightly worse, therefore, it will be some time before we see recovery. I say that because the price of gasoline has reached new all time highs and there are no signs that point to the price going back down. In turn consumers are doing what they can to save their money; moving into a new home is no longer desired as it once was, consumers are trying to adapt to a new lifestyle. 10:11 AM 

 Anonymous says...
Well guys, you there in USA are may be near a bottom or bottom-like ground, but here in Europe the downturn starts in this moment. In Spain and Ireland we see that the house prices run up until December and now in spring they started to fall down, first slowly but more and more faster.
This "bubble explosion" will have still more after-effects like an earthquake. Most probably we will see some turn up in 2009. 11:41 AM 

 Anonymous says...
Working for one of the national home builders gives me some insight and strategy not available to most. At this point, most builders have done what they need to to get right sized to weather the storm. Sold off excess land, fire sale most standing inventory, new starts planned are at an affordable price. Liquidity problems for mortgage companies and excess inventory of homes for sale will continue to be a drag on the market. for the next year. Much of that being caused by foreclosed on homes, not new home inventory. The next problem that we face is the conversion of option arms that are now hitting trigger points for exceleration which will force many homes into foreclosure over the next 6 months. 12:37 PM 

 Anonymous says...
No NO BOTTOM YET BUT MAYBE A DEAD CAT BOUNCE!!!!! 1:21 PM 

 Nick Fenton says...
I'm loving all the response here. There are some very good points being made...keep them coming!

I saw a comment about Pay Option ARM's. Aren't most of those products based on US Treasury Rates? If I remember correctly, people were given the option to peg it to one of the US Treasury Rates or LIBOR. It's been a while since I've studied those, so I'm rusty. 1:32 PM 

 Anonymous says...
Calling a bottom in housing at this point is like trying to call a bottom in the financials. My money rests on the downside. There may be more housing starts and permits, but that doesn't mean people will be purchasing and getting financed. The new inventory is being bolstered by the increasing number of foreclosures. Many people who have a contingency in their contract to sell their current residence before they are able to close on a new one, may not have the opportunity to do so in this market. I would hope that the real estate market starts to rebound, but in my opinion, I do not see that happening until next spring. 4:24 PM 

 Michael Glass says...
This is definitely an interesting question. The building permits and housing starts data on Friday was certainly good news for the housing sector.

The builder sector on the market has been consolidating for months after the beatdown the whole sector has taken. However, the market as a whole has found resistance at the 200 XMA. We need the brokers to start leading the market once again for the market to start taking off about the 200 XMA.

Michal - http://www.michaelglass.com 6:30 PM 

 Nick Fenton says...
I'm getting exactly what I expected with regard to feedback. Nobody agrees that we are at a point of stabilization in housing. I completely understand being that the sector has done nothing but dissapoint. That said, I'm sticking to my guns and keeping my "neck on the chopping block"...for now. 8:39 AM